【摘要】如何科学评判后危机时期的内外部冲击对我国经济系统产生的连锁反应和反馈效应以及如何厘定应对之策？正日益成为中外学者和政府部门密切关注的焦点。旨在构建一个具有较强通用性的政策研究工具和分析框架，定量评判特定政策或冲击对社会经济及资源环境等各方面的影响。然而对发展中国家来说，由于缺乏充足、可靠的时间序列数据来满足严格的计量经济学分析要求。故此，本文首次构筑一个实物、环境与金融层面相统合的中国动态的多部门[1]可计算性一般均衡（CGE）体系，定量分析后危机时期内外部冲击对中间品、相关产品价格和产量、宏观经济指标、金融指标及居民收入等方面的影响，并提出模拟结果的相关政策含义。

关键词结构变化 全要素生产率 多部门动态CGE 政策模拟

中图分类号 F123.16 文献标识码 A

A Macro- Impacts of Oil Shock, Carbon Emission, Fiscal Policies and Structural Change

Abstract： For current China, how to speed up economic restructuring is the solution to our current macro-economic crux of the matter. This paper is to present a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chinese economy which integrates real、environmental and financial sectors, and employ it to quantitatively analyze the impacts of public expenditure policy in the structural adjustment process on economic efficiency and income distribution caused by, from the point of view of macro and industrial aspects. Finally, this paper presents concluding remarks.

Keyword: Structural adjustment TFP Dynamic CGE Model Policy Simulation

JEL: C68