（1.中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所；2.北京信息科技大学理学院）

【摘要】本文主要从储蓄的供给与需求两方面分析国民储蓄率的决定机制，推导出了国民储蓄率的生产性因素分解公式，并重点从生产方面解释了中国高储蓄率的成因。本文主要结论是：国民储蓄率由消费者决定的储蓄供给与生产者决定的储蓄需求两者间的均衡关系决定，仅从消费者行为方面解释中国高储蓄率现象，不足以理解中国储蓄之谜，而是需要考虑生产者行为的因素；在生产方面，人均资本水平、劳动力数量及资本折旧的变动是影响国民储蓄率的重要因素；国民储蓄率的决定具有内生性，因此单纯刺激消费的政策难以主导储蓄率的变化，其中劳动年龄（15~64岁）人口比重持续上升的人口结构是导致中国长期存在高储蓄率现象的一个关键的客观性因素。

关键词  储蓄率  决定机制  中国储蓄之谜  储蓄的供给与需求

中图分类号                  文献标识码  A

An Analysis on the Determination Mechanism of National Saving Rate and an Explanation for the Chinese Saving Puzzle

 Abstract：This paper mainly focuses on analyzing the determination mechanism of national saving from the both side of production and consumption; derives a formula linking the national saving rate among per capita capital, labor and depreciation. The research shows that: The national saving rate will be determined by the balance condition between the saving supply and the saving demand. It is necessary to explain the phenomenon of China's high savings rate by exploring the producer’s behavior, not only by the consumer’s behavior. In the production, the growth rate of per capita capital, the growth rate of labor, and the depreciation rate are mainly factors affecting the national saving rate. The national saving is an endogenous variable so that it can not be determined only by the policies of increasing consumption. The Chinese demographic structure, which the labor ratio has been continued to rise during the past time in China, are the key determinants to cause the high level of Chinese saving rate.

Key words：Saving Rate；Determination Mechanism；Chinese Saving Puzzle；Saving Supply and Saving Demand

一、文献综述

自1978年改革开放以来，中国经济实现了快速增长。与此同时，国民储蓄率不断上升，高储蓄率、高投资率、低消费率成为中国宏观经济的重要特征。尽管多年来中国政府出台了多方面的旨在提高消费对经济增长贡献的措施，以扭转经济增长过于依靠投资拉动的状况，但是高储蓄率、低消费率的基本局面始终没有显著改变。长期存在的中国高储蓄率现象被国内外学术界称为“中国储蓄之谜”（Chinese Saving Puzzle）。如何解释中国的高储蓄率现象，不仅是经济理论问题，更是关系如何理解中国经济及政策选择的重要问题。