（南开大学国际经济贸易系）

Do exports generate a continuous productivity growth? Evidence from Chinese industrial firms

Shao Min

(International Economics and Trade Department, Nankai University)

Abstract: This paper examines the causal effect of export on productivity growth on the basis of a sample of Chinese industrial firms over the period 2000-2006, using difference-in-differences propensity score matching estimators. Our results suggest that productivity growth improvements, although present, are far from permanent and tend to dissipate shortly after initial entry. Further empirical analysis indicate that the existence of “learning-by-doing” is closely related to the share of processing trade in industry exports as well as the industry technical levels. Learning-by-doing merely exist in the middle or high-industries with a low share of processing export trade, which assumes a positively significant and more durable effect of export on their productivity growths. However, the “expansion trap” through exporting merely exists in the middle low or low-tech industry with a high share of processing trade in industry exports as well as in metal products industry, which assumes a negative significant effect of export on their productivity growths.

Keywords: export; productivity growth; Kernel propensity score matching; learning by doing; expansion trap

JEL Classification: F16, J24, C14

[摘要] 文章采用2000-2006年间持续经营的工业企业微观数据实证分析了我国企业的出口行为对其劳动生产率增长率的作用。基于倍差法的Kernel倾向评分匹配估计结果表明，我国企业的出口行为能在出口后的1年或2年内显著提高其劳动生产率增长率，但此后该影响作用并不显著，出口贸易未能促进我国劳动生产率的持续增长。进一步的实证分析发现：企业出口活动的“干中学”效应与出口加工贸易度和技术水平均密切相关，该效应仅存在于出口加工贸易比重低的（中）高技术行业中，表现为行业中企业的出口活动提高了其劳动生产率增长率，且该作用具有较好的持续性。而通过出口贸易而产生的“扩张陷阱”只存在于出口加工贸易度高的（中）低技术行业以及金属制品业中，表现为行业中企业的出口活动降低了其劳动生产率增长率。

[关键词] 出口；劳动生产率增长；Kernel倾向评分匹配；干中学；扩张陷阱