（1.清华大学人文学院；2.河北省统计科研所；3.燕山大学经济管理学院）

【摘要】目前一般的宏观经济预测模型都采用凯恩斯的总需求决定理论，缺乏用历史数据反映供需失衡状态的分析，而且，主流宏观经济学忽略了中间产品需求的作用分析。为了弥补这两个经济学分析缺陷，本文建立了一个基于投入产出(IO)分析原理的总供给-总需求（AS-AD）分析框架，并以中国1987-2007年投入产出表为基础进行实证分析。结果表明：我国货币政策和财政政策对经济均衡产出水平的影响较小，但在改善就业和净出口状况方面有效；减税能够改善就业和对外贸易状况，且对劳动者收入改善效果显著；劳动生产率提高是经济增长和通货膨胀的最有效途径，但要改善就业和劳动者收入需要其他政策措施的配合。

关键词：总供给-总需求模型 投入产出 中国经济

中图分类号: F014.32                        文献标识码: A

The AS-AD Approach of China Economy Based on Input-Output Structure

Abstract: The present macroeconomic forecasting models generally take Keynesian aggregate-demand deciding approach, which neglects to analyze the effects of historical data in reflecting the supply-demand disequilibrium states. In addition, the mainstream economics has little analysis on middle product demand because its basic theories are founded on the concept of GDP and exclude gross output. This paper sets up a new kind of AS-AD analysis frame based on the principles of input-output analysis, and the frame is used to investigate China’s economy with the data of China Input-Output Tables from 1987 to 2007 and some in yearbooks. Our results show that: the effects of monetary and fiscal policies are not notable on the equilibrium output, but apparent on the improvement of employment and net export; and the abatement of taxes, though, has little effects on gross output, but improves the employment and foreign trade,  at addition it increases the income of labour with a little inflation; the enhancement of labour productivity is a feasible way for economic growth, but it needs some policy cooperation to improve the employment and labour income.

Key Words: Aggregate Supply-Demand Model; Input-Output; China Economy