（南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院；南京航空航天大学能源软科学研究中心，江苏 南京，210016）

【摘要】传统的工业二氧化碳排放驱动因素分析一般是以指数或结构分解分析为基础，其不足之处是没有将生产效率相关因素纳入分析框架，不能有效解释生产效率与技术变化对工业碳排放的影响。本文基于非参数距离函数和环境生产技术，构建了一种生产分解分析新方法，将碳排放变动分解为x个贡献因素，并将其应用于研究分析我国工业36个行业碳排放的驱动因素。结果表明，潜在能源结构碳强度对工业二氧化碳排放强度下降的贡献要小于潜在能源强度，能源强度调整空间更大，能源结构碳强度由于煤炭占总能源消费比例过高趋势并未扭转，致使结构节能的潜力并未有效释放；能源利用技术效率改善不明显，各行业能源利用技术效率差异成扩大趋势。

关键词  环境生产技术 生产分解分析 工业碳排放 环境全要素生产率

中图分类号  C813   文献标识码  A

Driving Forces of Industrial CO₂ Emissions: A New Production-based Decomposition Analysis Method

Abstract：This paper implements environmental production technology and production decomposition analysis based on non-parameter distance function, provides the new decomposition framework for analyzing the changes of production efficiency and technology progress. Based on the above framework, we implements CO₂ emissions change decomposition of China's 36 industries. The results show that: potential energy intensity yields more contribution on change of CO₂ emission than potential CO₂ emission per energy consumption. More adjustment space in energy intensity can be further explored. The coal consumption is still too high to release the potential structural energy conservation. The improvement in technology efficiency on energy utilization is non significant for whole industry, and the disparity gaps on energy utilization technology efficiency among 36 industries are enlarging obviously.

Key words：Environmental Production Technology; Production Decomposition Analysis; Industrial CO₂ Emissions; Environmental Total Factor Productivity