（厦门大学经济学院金融系）

【摘要】本文借鉴Lucas（1987）及Alvarez和Jermann（2004）的研究模型，将非平稳的消费序列分解为周期波动成分和增长趋势成分，估算中国经济波动与经济增长的总福利成本和边际福利成本，得到以下主要结论：（1）无论是经济波动还是经济增长方面，边际福利成本均为总福利成本的2倍左右。（2）中国经济波动与增长的福利成本在1952~2010年呈现显著的阶段性特征，1952~1990年间经济波动的福利成本显著大于1991~2010年间，而后一阶段经济增长的福利成本也远远大于前一阶段。结合这一发现，我们认为宏观调控应增强中国经济的稳定性，着重防范内外部因素对经济增长趋势的不确定冲击。

关键词 经济波动 经济增长总福利成本 边际福利成本

中图分类号  F061.4       文献标识码 A

On the Welfare Costs of China’s Business cycle Fluctuations and Economic Growth Variation

Abstract: This article uses the models proposed by Lucas (1987) and Alvarez and Jermann (2004) for reference. Decomposing the non-stationary consumption sequence into the growth trend component and business-cycle fluctuations ingredients, we estimate the total welfare costs and marginal welfare costs of business cycle fluctuations and economic growth variation of China. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) In comparison, estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of total welfare costs. (2) The welfare cost of China’s business cycle fluctuation in 1952~1990 is obviously larger than the welfare cost of China’s business cycle fluctuation in 1991~2010, and the welfare cost of China’s economic growth variation in the later stage is far much larger than the previous stage. Combing with this finding, we believe that the macroscopical control should enhance the stability of the China’s economy, and guard against the uncertain impacts of internal and external factors to economic growth trend.

Key Words: Business cycles fluctuations; Economic growth variation; Total welfare costs; Marginal welfare costs

一、引言

相对于随机变动的消费流而言，消费者更偏好确定性的消费流。消除消费流的不确定性，对居民个体而言，即意味着一种福利改进。Lucas（1987）最早开展了对经济波动与增长福利成本的量化研究，其意图是想借此证明进一步深化美国的宏观稳定政策并不能带来经济福利的有效提升。他的分析思路是给随机波动的消费流予以一个补偿参数，使得消费者对于确定性的消费流和补偿后的随机波动的消费流无差异，并用这个补偿参数度量经济波动的福利成本。类似的，定义经济增长的福利成本，考虑一种补偿方案，使得既定波动下消费路径的增长率下降一个百分点与补偿后的既定波动下的消费路径给消费者带来的效用相同，这个补偿参数就是对经济增长福利成本的度量。